Of all the building types in Tokyo, residential buildings best reflect this state of flux. Both in terms of typology and scale - S, M and L are evenly distributed throughout the city - they reveal a honest picture of society. Nearly all of Tokyo's residential buildings are shaped by the pragmatism of the big corporations and their reliance on proven methods. Nevertheless, there are seemingly endless opportunities for experimentation, even in central locations. From most of Tokyo's approximately 650 subway and suburban train stations, it's just a two to three-minute walk until you find yourself in a network of quiet, village-like alleyways lined with small homes. These areas are the result of ongoing development over centuries, reflecting choices motivated by tradition, freedom and necessity. The average lifespan of 26 years for a house spares the next generation from being forced to live according to their predecessors' values.
However, in order to remain affordable despite their prime location, niches are sought and needs redefined. Plots of land, repeatedly parcelled off due to increasing land prices and inheritance tax, have led to the construction of beautiful extremes, which are often met with admiration and astonishment in international publications. Yet, despite this potential for a speedy evolution of architecture in the city, the market for single-family homes is dominated by a few large prefabricated building companies. Their business model is not based on experiments but on the careful development of a building system that is quick to complete and easy to demolish.
Densification
Many of these areas, where the homes are mainly built of wood, are a thorn in the side of city planners. One reason are the numerous catastrophes that have hit the city since its foundation: especially in these rather uncontrollable parts of the city, fires and earthquakes have repeatedly led to great losses. Another, perhaps even more crucial loss, is the wasted potential for densification. The government has repeatedly tried to replace small homes with larger complexes.
Although the number of detached single-family homes has risen steadily to around 1.9 million after a brief decline in the 1980s, their share of Tokyo's total living space has fallen from over 50 % in the 1970s to just under 30 % today. This decline goes hand in hand with changing social structures: the nuclear family is breaking up, both from the bottom - fewer people are having children - and from the top - older family members are increasingly taking advantage of the growing supply of "age-appropriate" housing, with more individualization available in medium- and large-scale residential projects.
Maximization
Meanwhile, city and state have reacted to the rapidly changing reality with ever-new regulations and laws, as if trying to tame urban development by turning a tap. The most impactful change in the 20th century was the change from limiting building height to limiting gross floor area. In 1963, technical developments and political will abolished the absolute building height limit of 31 metres. This cleared the way for a new dimension that has a single goal: maximization.
The economic bubble that peaked in late 1991 led to a profound change in Tokyo's urban structure. Large swaths of the city were systematically bought up. Small apartment buildings were transformed into office tower clusters. The city and state intervened at ever shorter intervals to counteract the involuntary exodus of urban residents. In 1985, new building projects were required to include a high percent of housing; in 2002 and 2013 special areas were defined to stimulate city centres hit by the financial crises. In 2018, developers of residential buildings were allowed to significantly increase the floor-area ratio of their projects. The measures are having an effect: the population in Tokyo's centres is increasing. But this is often accompanied by a dramatic rise in housing prices, so that the original residents are replaced by more prosperous ones.
Diversity
The "Grand Design for Urban Development" strategy paper published by the government in 2017 envisions Tokyo in 2040 as a zero-emission, high-tech city made up of multiple networked centres surrounded by large green areas where all the amenities of everyday life are within walking distance. In 2020, in this time of social distancing, such goals have taken on added significance.
In the long term, however, the strategy is aimed at a different challenge: forecasts predict that the population will peak in 2025. By 2100, the population is expected to nearly halve, half of which will be over 65 years old. This means that, for the first time, new beginnings will no longer only mean new constructions, but also more demolitions and conversions.
The coming decades may see the greatest transformations taking place in the history of Tokyo. But this city is prepared like no other: the ability to react quickly to ever-changing circumstances, acquired over 400 years, along with the sheer mass of people, make Tokyo fertile for myriad possibilities for the city of the future.
